Pakistan's Continuing Turmoil

Pakistan's latest crisis – the confrontation between former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari – is deeply worrying for the US and Britain as they prepare for a big spring push, military and economic, against the Taliban on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. It has again underlined the west's limited power to control events in a region often portrayed as the front-line in the fight against terrorism and Islamist extremism.

Britain's high commissioner, Robert Brinkley, is urging the two sides to step back from the brink as a nationwide opposition protest movement, known as the Long March, gathers pace, Pakistani newspapers reported today. The US ambassador, Anne Patterson, is also said to be pressing for a compromise deal, fearful that the protests may degenerate into violence and bring down the weak civilian government in Islamabad.

Also looking for a way out, Pakistan's prime minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, has advised Zardari to end direct rule in Punjab and allow the provincial assembly in Lahore to elect a leader, the Dawn newspaper said. Zardari's dismissal last month of the Punjab government led by Sharif's party triggered this latest conflagration. There is also talk that Zardari may reverse his refusal to reinstate the former chief justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry, as the price of his own political survival.
"I am speaking at a time when the country is on the crossroads," Gilani said. "I will advise the president to lift governor's rule [as direct rule in Punjab is known] ... It is the right of whichever party has the majority to form its government ... We want to [maintain] the vision of our slain leader, Benazir Bhutto."

Gilani was optimistic that Pakistan would overcome its egregious economic problems with help from the IMF, but said it could not afford the sort of vicious political infighting that has led senior officials to accuse Sharif of sedition and insurrection. "A condition for the world's support is that we show to the world that we are a politically strong and stable country," he said.

Understanding the necessity for firm, steady governance did not mean Zardari and co could deliver it in practice, said Maleeha Lodhi, a former senior diplomat and political commentator. "Developments in the past week ... [are] raising afresh the question of whether such a floundering government can run the country at such a critical time." Pakistan's history showed governments could not rule effectively if they pursued iniquitous policies towards their political rivals, she wrote.

Lodhi also set the political stand-off against a bleak backdrop of growing social despondency, especially among the young. According to a worldwide Gallup poll of young Muslims aged 15 to 29, Pakistanis were by far the most pessimistic, she said. "When asked if they thought they were thriving, struggling or suffering, 51% in Pakistan said they were struggling and 35% said they were suffering." This was a higher level of discontent than that registered in Indonesia or in poor African countries such as Niger and Mali – and higher even than in Palestine.

Pakistan's political volatility, its economic impoverishment, and deepening social alienation are at the heart of the challenge that the Obama administration's current review of regional policy is trying to address. But while Washington tries to mediate a political truce, appropriates billions of dollars in additional economic and development aid, and wonders how hard to push Pakistan's military in confronting the Taliban, anti-western hardliners and jihadis are not sitting on their hands.

One Islamist party, the Jamaat-e-Islami, has joined forces with Sharif's marchers; its supporters clashed with police in Karachi this week. And according to the Daily Times, intelligence agencies have warned Sindh's government that terrorists linked to al-Qaida are planning new attacks, including possible attacks on the marchers, following last week's assault on Sri Lanka's cricketers in Lahore.

"Agencies have been specifically warned that terrorist organisations can strike during the Long March ... with March 14 and 15 being sensitive days," a Sindh home department official told the paper. Security had been increased in Karachi and additional forces sent to Islamabad. A local television station reported meanwhile that al-Qaida planned to use unrest on the streets as cover for attacks on US consulates and citizens.

With Afghanistan also facing political upheaval ahead of August elections and with President Hamid Karzai under a cloud of western disapproval, these are far from ideal conditions in which to launch Barack Obama's new "Af-Pak" strategy. Obama effectively admitted the west was losing the war in Afghanistan. The growing worry now is that it may "lose" Pakistan, too.

From here.