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Thursday, October 16, 2008

Obama's Prospects: An African View

Two years after, Obama has defied the skeptics and is getting closer to the White House than any black candidate has ever done in the history of the US. While skeptics doubted his pedigree and potential, Obama beat some of the best candidates in the primaries such as Hillary Clinton, wife of the famous Bill Clinton.

Despite the historic achievement and many polls currently favoring Obama, many people still doubt if he will finally be elected US president on November 4, 2008. Perhaps, there is a genuine reason for such cynicism and doubts - Obama is a black.

Attempting to gauge voter's attitude towards the candidacy of Barack Obama, a CNN/Opinion Reseach Poll found that six percent of Americans would not vote for him because he is back. A higher number - nine percent of those polled said that there are more likely to vote for him because he is black. Meaning Obama is likely to have more people voting for him because he is black.

For supporters of Obama, these figures are comforting. But why do many continue to habour fear and cynicism about his ultimate success? The story dates back to 1982 when a black - Tom Bradley was running for Governor of California. Before the elections, Bradley like Obama was leading significantly in the polls.

When the elections took place, Bradley lost to his challenger. Since then, political scientists in the US established what they call the Bradley Effect. Every time a black candidate has run for elections, pollsters are careful about the sincerity of public opinion on the candidate.

Would there be a Bradley Effect on November 4? As some polls have found, there are people who would not vote for Obama because of his race, yet would lie to pollsters. These people are not necessarily whites - some blacks have even publicly announced that they would not vote for him because he is too inexperienced.

But, would this number be large enough to affect the outcome of the results? No one can say now. Obama's results in the primaries, his comfortable victories in predominantly white states such as Iowa, Virginia, Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington reflects how much racial emancipation has taken place in the US.

Read it all here.

I'd vote for a black candidate, even a youthful one like Omaba. My objection isn't to his skin or his youthful enthusiasm, but to his educational policies, his stand on abortion, and his lack of experience. In other words, were he a conservative candidate, he'd have my vote.

3 comments:

Alice C. Linsley said...

After listening to the debates and watching Obama move more to the center, I'm considering voting for him. However, I'm nervous about a candidate that is endorsed by the Communist Party, MoveOn.org, and the national-level gay rights activists.

Also, I don't buy the Dems claim that McCain represents 4 more years of Bush's policies. McCain has made it clear that he is his own man!

Ellie said...

McCain being "Bush's Man" depends on what issues are importnat to you. If you want out of Iraq, McCain will follows Bush's lead. He will also continue to support some of the economic policies that Bush is now infamous for. However, there are other areas where he has rebelled against his own party/Bush to fight for what he thinks is important (immigration law). You have to decide what is important to you.

I might have considered McCain if he hadn't chosen Palin for a running mate.

Alice C. Linsley said...

If its about picking an issue, we should vote for McCain. Abortion, which Obama wants to further liberalize, takes thousands more lives in a year than have been lost in the Iraq war.

Columnist George F. Will reports: In Britain, more babies with Down syndrome are aborted than are allowed to be born. In America, more than 80 percent of the babies diagnosed prenatally with Down syndrome are aborted. This is dismaying to, among others, the American Association of People with Disabilities, whose premise is that "disability is a natural part of the human experience."

The AAPD worries that increasingly sophisticated prenatal genetic testing technologies will mean that parents who are told their expected babies are less than perfect "will experience pressures to terminate their pregnancies from medical professionals and insurers."

Will is right. Prenatal diagnosis amd eugenic abortions undermine human dignity and the sanctity of life. Unacceptable defenseless lives are to be aborted.